5-1-26 | Cagey First Session of 2026
5-1-25 Chart
News
- Manufacturing PMI – 3pm
Market Context & Expectations
The holiday period was extremely quiet for Bitcoin. In fact, the whole of December formed a ~10,000-point inside-bar doji. That said, it still provided excellent trading opportunities during the first three weeks, with price repeatedly rotating between 94,000 and 84,000.
Since the start of the new year, we’ve seen a gradual bullish push, with price moving back toward — but not yet into — the 94,000 major resistance zone.
As a reminder, 94,000 is a critical level. Bears must defend this zone if they want to complete a larger 75,000 double bottom on the weekly chart, or at least re-test last November’s low around 80,000.
If bears fail to defend it, control shifts back to the bulls and a corrective move toward 100,000 (50% fib of the latest bear leg) becomes increasingly likely.
Tactics for the Day
Given this is the first trading session of 2026 after a two-week break, I’m approaching today cautiously and defensively.
My plan:
- Trade double tops and double bottoms only
- Trade breakouts, but only if a clear zone failure is established
- Prefer longs, given recent bullish structure — but remain open to shorts if US traders show decisive bearish momentum
No add-ons today. First day back = defensive execution.
Key Zones
Bull Zones
- 92,500 – H1 swing
- 92,300 – EU session low
- 92,100 – H1 swing + RN
- 91,000 – H4 swing / H1 cluster
Bear Zones
- 93,400 – Daily swing high + EU high
- 93,400–94,500 – Major resistance zone
I’ll trade double tops/bottoms from these areas and consider breakouts, while fully accepting that this is a difficult environment — multiple overlapping levels mean false signals are likely.
No 50% fib trades today: no clean EU trend and the prior leg was down.
Stops: at swings
Risk: 1R per setup
Max daily risk: 3R
Session Execution
Bar 1
300p decent bear bar with strength into the close. My first buy zone at 92,500 is tested.
Bar 2
600p key reversal bar.
First trade of the year: long on the break of Bar 1 high.
Bar 3
TP1 taken at the EU session high for +0.4R.
Not ideal, but mandatory — target was there and SL was wide per the day’s rules.
Note: the “go-or-die” stop worked exactly as intended.
Bar 3 closes strongly above the EU high with a 500p bar.
Even on an aggressive day, I would not add here.
Why:
- 600p setup bar + 500p momentum bar = 1100p move
- This is where profit-taking typically appears
- My add-ons are before momentum, not after
Bar 6
Reversal pin bar. PMI comes out slightly worse than expected.
- Long: SL moved to BE
- Short: triggered on break of Bar 6
Halftime Report (45-Minute Mark)
After the initial bullish push, price stalls around 93,500. This becomes a clear battleground between bulls and bears — and I’m positioned to benefit from whichever side wins.
- Long (Bar 2): TP1 done, SL at BE, final target 94,500
- Short: slightly underwater
- TP1: 93,000
- TP2: 92,400
If bulls reclaim and break the session high, I’ll engage the breakout long.
Bar 9
This bar triggers Fib pullback add-on #3 — not traded today.
It also stops out my short.
Mistake:
I failed to exit earlier on the reversal bar when I couldn’t move SL to BE. I was mentally distracted by the add-on setup (even though I wasn’t taking it).
Result:
- Took -1R
- Proper management would have limited this to -0.5R
First-day rust — noted.
Bar 10
New session high, but closes back inside the range.
This is a failed breakout and opens the door for a key reversal short.
Bar 11
Key reversal confirmed — strong break below Bar 10 low.
I’m short again.
Bar 13
Another fib pullback long add-on appears.
However:
- No reversal bar yet
- By strict rules, no exit required
Contextually, sellers are struggling — something to note.
Bar 15
Clean breakout. Strong close above session high after multiple failed sell attempts.
I’m long on the bar close.
Bar 18 - 90-Minute Session Close
- Range: 1600p (≈20% below 2025 average)
- Targets: 94,400–94,500 major resistance
Plan for the rest of the day:
- Take 2/3 profits at resistance
- Leave one target open in case bears fully fail — this is a make-or-break zone
This was a cagey, laboured TFO-type day. These sessions often feel unclear until it’s too late — and when traders finally realise it’s a TFO, price is already running.
The best moves on these days often come later. We’ll see.
Bar 25
Exited the breakout long on a reversal bar breaking lower.
The breakout did not follow through.
Bar 42
TP2 hit on the double bottom.
Bar 78
Day ends with a total range of 2400p, well below 2025’s ~3300p average.
TP2 exit marked the high of the day.
Summary
A typical messy first day of the year.
It was good to be back — the familiar emotions, focus, and pressure returned very quickly. Overall, I handled a tricky session well and stayed disciplined in a difficult environment.
Improvements & Lessons
- Bar 9: Exit the short earlier on reversal if SL can’t be moved to BE
- Bar 13: Context suggested sellers were failing — a more structure-aware exit could have limited losses to -0.5R
- Bar 25: While today’s exit was correct, longer-term I should avoid micromanaging trades after the US open when I’m no longer present
Overall, these improvements could have saved 0.5–1R.
Trades
- Trade 1: Bar 2 – Long (Double Bottom) → +1.35R
- Trade 2: Bar 6 – Short (Double Top) → -1R
- Trade 3: Bar 10 – Short (Double Top) → -1R
- Trade 4: Bar 15 – Long (Breakout) → -0.5R
Net Result: -1.15R
